"If I am elected I would serve a full third term. I do not want to serve a fourth term."
How long before he is seen as a lame duck Prime Minister? I wish him good health tomorrow but the fight for his succession starts now. When he loses at the next election the Labour party will implode and who knows what will happen to the party then as the choice becomes between a right of centre party and two left of centre parties.
4 comments:
Well I can't see that the Conservatives can take much comfort from the Hartlepool by-election result. Labour must be pleased to retain it in spite of all that's been said and done. The Conservative candidate was behind UKIP, the Lib Dems AND Labour. More indication that a vote for the Conservatives is wasted if you don't want a Labour government.
Indeed. Don't waste your vote at the general election... don't vote Conservative!
But what is the point of voting LibDem? They'll never form a government, you'll get (another) pointless opposition backbench MP. The ONLY way to get rid of Labour is voting Conservative. That's what I'll do.
Both the Lib Dems and Labour are left wing parties. Oh yes the Lib Dems mumble on about how they do not see themselves in such context but when you are trying to face both ways at once you would say that wouldn't you.
In Hartleppol at the 2001 GE the left wing parties secured 75% of the total vote. In the by election they secured........75% of the votes cast. The only unremarkable issue was that UKIP split the Con vote. The more remarkable aspect was the 20% drop in vote share of Labour. Even by the Lib Dem candidates estimation the Lib Dems threw everything at Hartlepool, including virtually all their activists.
The Conservatives must take lessons from Hartlepool but a General election will be a different vote where UKIP members risk splitting the Conservative vote and letting Euro federalist Labour or anti Pound Lib Dems in.
As for the Liberals, well they are very adept at puffing themselves up beyiond their real status. There will be no break through for them at the next election. If you go to politicalbetting.com (run by a Lib Dem) and visit an election prediction calculator (run by Alan Wells) and put the current poll positions in they get an extra 12 seats!! I have been quite fair and not used the uniform swing calculator that is at financialcalculus.co.uk which would see them win three extra seats. They are more guilty of spinning their own importnace than Labour could ever have been
But there will be swings and roundabouts for the Lib Dems because you cannot face both ways at once. They will lose General Election seats in Conservative areas and gain in Labour areas, as they did in the June elections.
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