A good fight in the end with all sides working hard. The Lib Dems held the seat but with a 14% swing away from them to the opposition. As I predicted most of that went to Labour who actually put in a good effort in this election. There is a quite well known Lib Dem who runs a Political Betting website. He has argued and worried for the Lib Dems about tactical voting unwind as former Labour voters who switched to the Lib Dems started to vote in their natural home and go back to Labour, this would particularly happen if at anytime a Labour voter saw the Lib Dems as a more potent force. It may well be we saw some of that last night.
We have had a comment about the result on the blog which I thought it worth bringing to greater exposure. This is clearly from a Lib Dem activist and I thought it important to give his remarks some airing.
Well well well - your usual Tory boy campaign of lies and distortions in Grove Ward have gone down well.Lib Dem win - 52% to 28%. Keep up the good work.For once you were right the Labour vote went up - they fought back from fourth place to claim a creditable third with a massive 11% of the vote. Probably helped by that master of the local political scene and Tory infiltrator - Councillor Steve Mama - maybe if he keeps it up just one day Tory boy might make him Mayor so he can dress up in the frock he so clearly has been drooling for since he became a fixture of the local political scene in about 1867.
The trouble with these idiots is that they think that politics is just a game. They think politics is a bit like football and it is all about running around all over Grove knocking omn doors and winning. Politics is far more serious than that because having won you have to do something. It is about how you affect peoples lives and how you use the trust they gave you to do things to improve things for them. That is the problem with Lib Dems, they do nothing when they get power and squander their majority with arguments, splits, high tax and fiddling around the edges rather than tackling the real problems. It is not about the stupidity and the lack of humility at the heart of the Liberal Democrats. Thankfully people are beginning to recognise them for what they are and as the result shows last night they are returning to parties that can represent them with some dignity and the skills with which to run public services.
There, got that off my chest, but doubtless there will be a stream of Lib Dem activists who will now comment on this and prove my theory further!! Actually maybe I should print the comment above in a leaflet?
Busy weekend ahead as have to restart deliveries elsewhere this weekend.
12 comments:
It's me again Tory boy. This time they won't let me post as David Shaw - censorship perhaps?
Glad to see you liked my comments so much you put them on the tin.
But - hey why let facts get in the way of a good story.
Once again your little shiny Tory Boy lies rear their ugly head - 14% swing against the Lib Dems? Only under a Tory education policy.
Some (uncomfortable) facts - the only party to increase their vote was Labour (up 5.3%). Lee Bowyer's vote fell by 0.9% and the Lib Dems by 4.5%. I make that a 1.8% swing from Lib Dem to Tory and a 4.9% swing from Lib Dem to Labour.
Hardly a ringing endorsement of your campaign strategy?
If you applied these swings to the general election you're on course for victory in 2068 - unfortunately you'd have been overtaken by Labour in around 2054.
I'm sure by then the little local difficulties in the ranks of the local Conservatives will have been resolved - tell me when are you and Mr Brown next due in court?
As Kevin said whatever else this nasty idiot is doing he is at least proving the point that the Lib Dems are nothing else than a bunch of football hooligans. I don't live there but poor Kingston if these are the type of people that get elected!
Oh and he clearly does not know what swing means. There are two sides to swing and he is only counting one of them.
He also can't read simple figures as the Conservative vote went up!
I am shocked. I've always voted for the LibDems because they worked hard in the area, but after seeing their comments on this blog I'll not do so again. I'm no Tory, but Kevin Davis is one step closer to getting my vote after reading this.
I'm afraid there's only one party that doesn't understand swing here.
For those who doubt my methodology - take the average vote from 2002 - that means dividing the total vote for each party by the number of candidates so you can compare those parties that put up three candidates with those that put up one. If you do this the Tory vote falls by a percentage point. I suppose if you take the top or the middle candidate you might get the Tory vote to rise - but it's still less than 30% and the result is nowhere near 'close to the wire' as Mr Davies predicted.
I's be ineresting to see where the 14% swing comes from - if there had been you lot would have won. Maybe it's you guys who don't understand swing? (For information a 14% swing would have meant the Lib Dem vote falling by 14% and the Tories rising by 14%)
Either way - it's not the sort of result that will propel Mr Davies to Westminster is it? If you couldn't beat a pretty useless council in the mid term, sixth months before a general election in the middle of an unpopular war - when will you win?
And if I was a Tory in Berrylands or Surbiton Hill - after Thursday I would be worried about my chances of winning next time.
Even the web site of the Association of Lib Dem Councillors shows an increase in the Tory vote of 0.7%, so it was certainly up.
However, as the Lib Dems originally won Grove in the middle of the Falklands War in 1982, it's probably not the most representative ward to see how either Party is really doing.
It's been a week now and no new comments from Tory Boy.
What's happened?
...Oh I know ... two polls showing the Tories doing even worse than under Drunken Smith and William Vague.
Looks like Our Lord Tony is set for another 100+ majority.
Remember silence is golden.
"Drunken Smith"????????? That's rich coming from a Liberal.
Whereas Charles Kennedy's reputation for sobriety is impeccable, I suppose?
IDS is many things but not drunken!!
At least IDS was able to turn up to budgets, unlike chatshow charlie who apprently could not get off the floor! Still I have some sympathy because leading bthe Lib Dem party would drive even good men to drink.
What on earth is this obnoxious Lib Dem fool doing posting comments on this site at one in the morning for ?! Has he nothing better to do with his life ? He is a disgrace to whoever or whatever he claims to represent .
Agree he is an idiot. Maybe like his leader he is drunk. Still at least he is now admitting that the only fight is between Labour and the Conservatives.
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